Data-Driven Prediction of Thresholded Time Series of Rainfall and SOC models

We study the occurrence of events, subject to threshold, in a representative SOC sandpile model and in high-resolution rainfall data. The predictability in both systems is analyzed by means of a decision variable sensitive to event clustering, and the quality of the predictions is evaluated by the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method. In the case of the SOC sandpile model, the scaling of quiet-time distributions with increasing threshold leads to increased predictability of extreme events. A scaling theory allows us to understand all the details of the prediction procedure and to extrapolate the shape of the ROC curves for the most extreme events. For rainfall data, the quiet-time distributions do not scale for high thresholds, which means that the corresponding ROC curves cannot be straightforwardly related to those for lower thresholds.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figure

Galaxy Cosmological Mass Function

We study the galaxy cosmological mass function (GCMF) in a semi-empirical relativistic approach using observational data provided by galaxy redshift surveys. Starting from the theory of Ribeiro & Stoeger (2003, arXiv:astro-ph/0304094) between the mass-to-light ratio, the selection function obtained from the luminosity function (LF) data and the luminosity density, the average luminosity $L$ and the average galactic mass $\mathcal{M}_g$ are computed in terms of the redshift. $\mathcal{M}_g$ is also alternatively estimated by a method that uses the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF). Comparison of these two forms of deriving the average galactic mass allows us to infer a possible bias introduced by the selection criteria of the survey. We used the FORS Deep Field galaxy survey sample of 5558 galaxies in the redshift range $0.5 < z < 5.0$ and its LF Schechter parameters in the B-band, as well as this sample's stellar mass-to-light ratio and its GSMF data. Assuming ${\mathcal{M}_{g_0}} \approx 10^{11} \mathcal{M}_\odot$ as the local value of the average galactic mass, the LF approach results in $L_{B} \propto (1+z)^{(2.40 \pm 0.03)}$ and $\mathcal{M}_g \propto (1+z)^{(1.1\pm0.2)}$. However, using the GSMF results produces $\mathcal{M}_g \propto (1+z)^{(-0.58 \pm 0.22)}$. We chose the latter result as it is less biased. We then obtained the theoretical quantities of interest, such as the differential number counts, to calculate the GCMF, which can be fitted by a Schechter function. The derived GCMF follows theoretical predictions in which the less massive objects form first, being followed later by more massive ones. In the range $0.5 < z < 2.0$ the GCMF has a strong variation that can be interpreted as a higher rate of galaxy mergers or as a strong evolution in the star formation history of these galaxies.Comment: In memory of William R. Stoeger (1943-2014). LaTeX, 8 pages, 7 figures. Minor changes to match version sent to publisher. To appear in "Astronomy and Astrophysics

Radial Density Statistics of the Galaxy Distribution and the Luminosity Function

This paper discusses a connection between the relativistic number counts of cosmological sources and the observed galaxy luminosity function (LF). Observational differential number densities are defined and obtained from published LF data using such connection. We observe a distortion in the observational quantities that increases with higher redshift values as compared to the theoretical predictions. The use of different cosmological distance measures plays a role in such a distortionComment: 3 pages, 3 figures. Abridged version of arXiv:1201.557

Universality of Tip Singularity Formation in Freezing Water Drops

A drop of water deposited on a cold plate freezes into an ice drop with a pointy tip. While this phenomenon clearly finds its origin in the expansion of water upon freezing, a quantitative description of the tip singularity has remained elusive. Here we demonstrate how the geometry of the freezing front, determined by heat transfer considerations, is crucial for the tip formation. We perform systematic measurements of the angles of the conical tip, and reveal the dynamics of the solidification front in a Hele-Shaw geometry. It is found that the cone angle is independent of substrate temperature and wetting angle, suggesting a universal, self-similar mechanism that does not depend on the rate of solidification. We propose a model for the freezing front and derive resulting tip angles analytically, in good agreement with observations.Comment: Letter format, 5 pages, 3 figures. Note: authors AGM and ORE contributed equally to the pape

Self-fields in thin superconducting tapes: implications to the thickness effect in coated conductors

Most applications of superconductors, such as power transmission lines, motors, generators, and transformers, require long cables through which large currents circulate. Impressive progress has recently been achieved in the current-carrying capability in conductors based on high-temperature superconductors. Coated conductors are likely the best examples, consisting of very good quality thin layers of YBCO superconductor grown on top of a metallic tape with some intermediate layers. However, there is an important problem for achieving large currents: a large decrease in transport critical-current density Jc when increasing film thickness has been observed in coated conductors made by all available techniques. Here, we theoretically explain the nature and the ubiquitous presence of this so-called thickness effect by analyzing the self-field created by the transport currents in the superconductor, assuming a realistic field-dependent Jc. This knowledge can help finding new ways to improve transport current in thick superconducting films.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Identifying Arkansas Food Desert Blocks Suitable for a Peer-to-Peer Modeled Food Redistribution Program

Abstract Nearly 10% of Americans reside in low-income urban food deserts which are low-income areas that lack access to affordable and nutritious foods. Food deserts in Arkansas contribute to a food insecurity rate above the national average, making it one of the most food insecure states in the country. Increased internet usage and consumer interest in sharing based companies contribute to the idea of a sharing, or peer-to-peer (P2P) style food redistribution program. The objective of this study is to identify which of the 186,211census blocks in the state of Arkansas are food deserts and best suited for and in the most need, based on an identified set of criteria, of a P2P food redistribution program. A multi-criteria decision analysis was conducted using population, internet access, vulnerable communities, and vehicle availability as criteria. Results suggest that based upon the close proximity of priority areas, transportation access, ethnic/racial diversity, and the number of possible collection locations, Pulaski County be targeted for a P2P food redistribution pilot program